The Art of Prediction

As the 2010 football season approaches we are inundated with countless acts of bold prognostications, high hopes and the ever present top ten list of whatever. Out of the haystack of articles, a majority of the pile can be attributed to a few subjects and a handful of schools. The SEC is always the best conference; texas will rack up every 5-star recruit and the ones that don't commit to texas, texas didn't want 'em anyways; whichever Rich-Rod or USC scandal is the hot topic, and of course whether or not Notre Dame will win the National Championship. If there were a National Championship for predicting National Championship wins, I think Domers take the cake.

So how does my nonsense differ? Well, I wanted to take a look at the long storied history of Notre Dame coaches to see how they've fared in their first seasons.  More so, what does it mean, if anything? As we all know, NCs of old were fuzzy at best with numerous different organizations and agencies declaring their own champion. For the sake of brevity I will only use consensus National Championships awarded. I mean, Knute Rockne truly should five or six NCs but is generally credited with three. That's neither here nor there and an argument for another post.

So what about his contemporaries who have held the sacred position and where did they end up?

I'll start with Jesse Harper, the great Jesse Harper. College football was much different then but I saw it fit to be a good starting point. Jesse Harper's first season was 1913 and he ended up 7-0-0. Although he never had a NC awarded, in his five seasons as head coach, Notre Dame never lost more than two games.

Knute Rockne began his dynasty in 1918 with a 3-1-2 record but of course strung together two back-to-back 9-0 seasons afterwards. And I will say that he still stands as the greatest college football coach of all time, regardless of era.

Elmer Layden in 1934 went 6-3. He strung together some very decent seasons but lacked the success of the Notre Dame greats.

Frank Leahy had two first years, 8-0 and 8-0! And of course he won four NCs. I will go ahead and say that Frank Leahy should be considered one of the very best coaches of all time, in that top five list. Five undefeated seasons and one, one loss season!

Terry Brennan started off at 9-1 in 1954 but never repeated that success.

Joe Kuharich went 5-5 in 1959. There's not much to say about the Kuharich era as far as I'm concerned. That was about the peak of it.

Ara Parseghian shot out of the cannon in 1964 at 9-1 and never looked back. Two consensus NCs and a few other contenders. Another one of the all-time greats, probably top 10 in my book, maybe right outside that top five.

Dan Devine in 1975 went 8-3. Not a bad start and not the worst tenure at all with the 1977 NC. Some very good wins in the late 1970s (as far as what I've read at least)!

Gerry Faust started out a loser at 5-6 and pretty much maintained status quo. Although some, including myself say otherwise, Faust is considered to be the worst of the bunch.

The great Lou Holtz also started off with a dud at 5-6. There were probably some who didn't know what to think after 1986. In two years he put together one of the greatest college football teams ever with the 1988 NC team, at least in the modern era. He coached five of his teams to double digit wins, won five bowl games and nearly two more NCs. Yet another one of the all-time greats!

Bob Davie took the reins in 1997 and went 7-6. Although he did take the Irish to their first BCS bid he is another considered towards the bottom of the Notre Dame coaching list, although I tend to disagree.

Tyrone Willingham was hired amidst controversy and after  the botched hiring/firing of George O'Leary. He shut down most of the haters after coaching a 10-3 team to nearly another BCS bid in 2002. Unluckily for him it was kind of a steady decline from there, even if only given three years on the job.

Then came the most recent savior of saviors, Charlie Weis, in 2005. Some were skeptical but after a 9-3 start and a BCS bid the echoes started to awaken a bit. After a 10-3 second season and yet another BCS bid, the Notre Dame checkbook awakened. All were deflated the next season and the following two with some of the most memorable losses in history. I consider the era to be the lowest point in Notre Dame history regardless of the few successes.

Looking back, minus the few one-and-doners I skipped, only two coaches started out below .500. One was a huge success, the other a huge flop, Holtz and Faust respectively. Davie and Kuharich finished near and at .500. Both were other than memorable. The all-time greats, most of them, started out great...but so did the all-time duds in Willingham and Weis.

So here we are, amidst another inaugural season for a new Chief of Staff, a 5-star general , the savior of all that can be saved, restorer of glory, etc, etc, etc. Bla bla bla. Some think they are BCS bound, naturally, see above. Some are more realistic and point to a marginally successful season, 7 or 8 wins. I suppose the point is that the first season truly means nothing. That said, based on the analysis of historical data rather than logical data, i.e. players, system and schedule, I predict a 9-3 season and they will win their bowl, so a 10-3 season all said and done. The difference between the previous three-loss inaugural seasons is that Kelly will coach a NC Notre Dame football season in one the following three seasons, possibly in the third season.

Where's the sense in this you say? Well, there is none, that's the point!

Realistic Aggie Expectations

It could probably go without saying that many Aggie fans have higher expectations than they actually deserve. It’s natural for any fan of any team really, I mean, who predicts a 4-8 season? While there are certainly some question marks with a few changes, primarily the near NCAA bottom defense, I will attempt to breakdown why this years high expectations are different than recent years past.

First, the sched. On paper it plays out nicely to what the Ags need to achieve this season. Here’s how I see it breaking down:

One, two and three, SFA, LA Tech and FIU respectively. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – because it’s Stephen F. Austin, LA Tech and Florida International. A loss here and heads will roll. Boy oh boy the Big 12 loves to roll up on the Sun Belt come scrimmage time, no chance they’d ever come up losers right? Why I’m sweatin’ it – Arky State 2008. Yeah, it can happen and it did happen. (W-W-W)

Ags travel to Oklahoma State for game four. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – three words, no Keith Toston. Sans Bryant and Hunter, this guy tore the Aggie D a new one, as it turned out, not an outrageous feat but cost them the game nonetheless. Furthermore, new OC, new QB, new Cowboy stars-in-the-making, hoping they’re not quite there yet after rolling over their scrub preseason. Why I’m sweatin’ it – Aggies on TV usually = FAIL (at least recently). Also, home Big 12 opener in T. Boone Pickens Stadium is tough for anyone. (W)

Southwest Classic Time! Ags v Hogs. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – last season. See disappointing TV. They ended the game well albeit too little too late. Why I’m sweatin’ it – last season. See Aggies on TV. Oh, and that guy called Ryan Mallett. (W/L)

Number six is at home to Mizzou; seven, at Kansas. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – because this aint 2008. Mizzou will once again be overrated and Kansas will sink back down to the bottom of the North. Why I’m sweatin’ it – the ole “looking through team whoever” excuse. These two games will be easy to look past as the gauntlet of their schedule will start next in the week. Gill is legit but may take him a few to establish himself in Lawrence. (W-W)

Week eight brings the Red Raiders into town. As much as Aggie fans want to disrespect this rivalry as no rivalry at all the team has to win and win every year. Last season was a good start! Why I’m not sweatin’ it – new coach new system. While they bring back Sheffield and Potts, gone are the days where you could expect the Texas Tech QBs putting up grody numbers. Take a look at Hawaii after Jones. Tuberville is legit and there’s no way around that but I’m afraid he’s going to have a tougher time in Lubbock than everyone seems to think. Why I’m sweatin’ it – Tommy Tuberville is legit, as I said. And Tech is Tech. If any team seems to beat folks when they least expect it, it’s Tech, right Sooners y horns? (W)
The ninth game will be the biggest test of the season... I said it first right here! Oklahoma comes to Kyle Field. Arguably one of the best wins in recent history came back in 2002 when A&M beat #1 Oklahoma in College Station. Guess what, they haven’t come close since save a one point game a few years back. In fact most of the game sense have been the most embarrassing Aggie football games in history! Two straight seasons they’ve hung over 60 points and three straight over 42! Why I’m not sweatin’ it – Not sure here, due theory maybe. A win has gotta come sometime and this year sets up to be a good one. They will NEED this win more than any other especially if Oklahoma is where they usually are, near top, and the Ags do what I expect them to, this could be a Big 12 decider! Why I’m sweatin’ it – Uh, start from the beginning of this paragraph. For whatever reason, Stoops just disrespects A&M year in and year out and there’s nothing they can do about it. (W/L)

It’s break time right... tenth game, hang out in Waco for a minute... beat Baylor. Wrong! Why I’m not sweatin’ it – because it’s Baylor, needn’t anything more to say. Why I’m sweatin’ it – Robert Griffith, again, nothing else to say about that. (W)

The Blackshirts roll in for game eleven. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – because they will have already beaten texas at home so they won’t care about A&M. Not really that simple actually. This game is going to be a battle of power offense (A&M) vs. power defense (Huskers). The experience and weaponry points to the Ags. Why I’m sweatin’ it – Nebraska will likely be on top of the North, so if things go as I see it, there could be a rematch in a couple weeks. They won’t want that so they’ll be gunnin’ for this one! (W)

The Lonestar Showdown! Texas A&M at texas! It will not get any better than this in the 2010 season. Texas will be where they normally are but I predict a little bit of a drop-off sans McCoy. Why I’m not sweatin’ it – the truth is, everyone sweats this game because you can throw everything out the window. It’s the best rivalry in sports (opinion). Statistically the best QB in college football history was 2-2 vs. the Aggies. He’s gone now. I’m sure Gilbert is legit, I mean, texas won’t settle for a scrub under center, but there will be some lag time here. With a couple of losses, texas will be less fired up for this game than the Aggies. Why I’m sweatin’ it – take the above, jumble around and drop here. Like I said, it really doesn’t matter. Johnson will want this win more than any other, but he’s yet to prove himself under tremendous pressure. Luckily this year every game will bring tremendous pressure. Oh, and Mack Brown hates babies and A&M! (W/L)

The way I see it they have a legitimate chance at not worse than a 9-3 season. 9-3 to me, given last year is a success but given the chance to be even better, it’s a fail. For some reason I think they lose the Arkansas game and will lose either Oklahoma or texas. That’s a two-loss season and a good chance at playing for the Big 12. IF, and a big IF they do play for the Championship, they will win that game.

10-2 is truly what I expect this season. Whether or not that’s good enough for a Big 12 championship who knows. As I said before there are huge question marks, primarily the O line and defense. I’m placing all my chips in on DeRuyter bringing this D back to old form...especially with some guy named Dat Nguyen helping out!

Show Me the Money!

So today I've decided to leave work until my company moves me to a better location. I also want to be the highest paid employee. I encourage everyone to do the same. Why not? I mean, this is essentially what we've got in professional sports right now.

This trend of inmates running the prison is nothing new, it's just getting worse. Perennial titty-baby Kobe Bryant publicly displayed his wish to be traded because he couldn't play nice with his teammates. The annual Brett Favre saga continues to hold whatever team he's signed to hostage grasping on every movement in the hopes of even a hint to whether or not he returns. The Lebron debacle this off-season was possibly the most sickening display of media exhaustion of one particular subject. Even though I don't fully blame Lebron for the overexposure, he certainly did nothing to quell the storm. Chris Paul felt left out and sad, so he decided he wanted to move as well even though he's still under contract. Now we have Albert Haynesworth who has cashed a $21 million check but doesn't want to play in the new defensive scheme and continues to fail or not complete his fitness test to keep himself out of training camp. Injury, power move or just plain laziness, either way it's a disaster here in D.C. Even more egregious in my opinion is Jets CB Derrelle Revis who is set to make $1 million this year and is under contract for three more years. He is not showing up to camp until he gets what he thinks is due to him, for the Jets to tear up his current contract and make him the highest paid DB in the league, over $15 million. I am purposely going to leave out the many examples of criminal accusations against players in virtually every pro league and those respective leagues lack of, or inconsistent, disciplinary action.

There's one thing that many fans and media folks seem to forget or fail to realize. That pro league is a business not unlike any other multimillion (or billion) dollar corporation. Actually the same can be said for each team. If I fail to show up for work because I'm unhappy with my current condition, or they move my desk or I feel as though I'm ready for a raise, I will be fired. If I am a repeat drunk driver, I will probably be fired. If I take a picture of my junk and send it to a co-worker, I will be fired. If I tell my boss I'm going to leave the company but decide not to at the last minute, how many times before he tells me to jog off? If I take a picture of my junk and send it to a co-worker, I will be fired and probably be charged with at least an indecency crime. So why aren't pros held to the same standards as any other business employee? Wins and losses, negative media, just plain ole cash?

There is such a thing called conduct unbecoming in the professional world. Just because a player has not been convicted of an accused crime should not determine whether or not action is taken from the team or the league. There's simply no accountability for actions. And when there is it's a joke. Not that I ever expect it to change though, as long as the casheesh is flowing. I do, however, expect it to get worse. No matter how much these guys want to believe they are not role models we all know, the truth is, they are.

I understand players getting their share compared to what's coming in for the owners, but let's be honest here... you think the dude digging a well out in some oil field is getting his fare share of the trillion dollar oil industry income? What about the teller at your multimillion dollar bank? The list can go on and on... Deserve or not, the fact is these pros have lost sight of the fact that they play a damned game for a living...and get paid well to do it. Have some dignity, better yet some integrity, and shut the hell up and play!

Let's Dance... Bare Knuckle Style!

In light of getting beat down yet again to the Ottawa Sens, I've dug up a few gratuitous fight clips for your viewing pleasure.

Rob Ray vs Tie Domi I & II - Rob Ray of course, one of my all time faves as he would lay the wood to just about anyone who crossed his path (ref. last clip). Domi was a thorn in everyone's side. He was the Avery before Avery...a mug that you just wanted to punch.





Andrew Peters, while virtually non-existent on offense filled out the enforcer role nicely for quite a few years. Certainly not as much of a badass as Ray, but he had no problem dropping the gloves with anyone. Any video of Chris Neil getting a beat down is worthy of a watch or two.



A good all round brawl with the Islanders last season. Mair, Kaleta and Rivet all getting into the mix.



And how could I not at least mention Ron Hextall. Even though he never donned the Sabre sweater, he is still my #1 seed. He scored, he slashed and he had no issue rolling cross-ice to throw down with Potvin. Classic!



I'll end it with none other than Rob Ray of course. Apparently it didn't matter whether you were playing the game or being a jackass trying to get on tv. Get the frozen meat and pack a lunch because you're gettin' the business right in the face!

Kaleta is My Homeboy!

Who is this guy and what have they done with the real Patrick Kaleta? Three goals in the last two games... with no time in the hot box! It took #36 26 games to get to three goals and now he's a scoring machine.

November was busy month for Kaleta being sent away for 37 minutes. He's up to 11 PIM midway through December but hasn't committed a crime in the past two games. That isn't necessarily unheard of, but couple that with scoring three goals! In fact five of the past twelve goals have come from the third line. Not too shabby!

While Buffalo certainly isn't breaking any scoring records this season thus far, they are tied for second best in goals allowed. Miller is a badass, we all know this, but this also could show dividends are paying off from off-season defensive moves.

Either way, whoever is scoring or not, wins are wins and points are points. The Sabres need all they can get with a beautiful four-game week; their second four-game week in a row dammitall! At Ottawa Wednesday then home vs Toronto and Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday respectively.

Adios Buffalo Dick!

Post Authored By: Ian Cowan

Well my friends, it finally happened. The moment that we have ALL been waiting for. Dick Jauron has been relieved of his duty as the Head Coach of the NFL’s Buffalo Bills. Yes, that noise you hear is the collective sigh of relief from “Bills Nation.” Christmas has in fact come early. Although, for some (including myself), it came about a year and a half late. But, I digress.

The Jauron “era” has come to an end, an era that probably should have never started. In order to completely understand the frustration of Bills fans, I feel we must first take a look at the path of both coach and team that set them on a collision course of horrible, uninspired football.

First, there is my beloved Buffalo Bills. They won two consecutive championships in the AFL before becoming a member of the NFL, where the successful seasons failed to transfer over. From the years 1966 to 1986, they posted a staggering 104-199-4 record. They were the equivalent to the modern day Lions, Bucs, Rams, or even Bills. It wasn’t until the 1986 season, when Marv Levy took over, that they began to resemble a football team. During Levy’s tenure (1986-1997), the Bills went 112-70. This included the infamous stretch of four Super Bowls in a row, from 1990-1993. I’m not sure how, but Levy was able to instill such a desire to win in his players that they became one of the most tenacious defensive teams paired with a deadly offensive attack that could put points on the board against anybody; accept the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys.

Things took a turn for the worse once Levy decided to step down as Head Coach after the 1997 season. In stepped Wade Phillips. He coached from 1998-2000 winning 29 of 48 games. Now, I must admit, this looks like a decent record. However, the numbers are deceiving. This was in fact the period of time where the desire and the “know-how” to win football games slipped away from the Buffalo Bills, and has yet to return.

After Phillips, came Greg Williams and Mike Mularkey. Both of them are very capable coordinators (defensive and offensive respectively). Unfortunately, their success as coordinators did not translate into successful head coaching careers. They combined for a record of 31-48 between the years 2001-2005, all of the while not making one playoff appearance.

This brings us to our beloved Dick Jauron. The simple fact that he was chosen be the head coach beginning the 2006 season was simply mind-numbing. When Jauron came to Buffalo, he brought with him a 36-49 record as the head coach of the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions

So began Jauron’s career in Buffalo. His first season came to an end at 7-9. Not too horrible, considering they were 5-11 the season before. In 2007, he “coached” the Bills to another 7-9 season. This is when Bills fans began to get a little uneasy, but Jauron received a free pass because of certain situations during that season to included the dreaded “quarterback controversy” between J.P. Losman and newly drafted Trent Edwards. By the beginning of the 2008 season, Trent Edwards had been officially named the starting quarterback. Bills fans were optimistic, despite two consecutive 7-9 seasons. The team began the season 5-2, then the injury bug bit. Edwards went down, and so did the Bills season. They finished…drum roll please…7-9. Everyone thought for sure that this meant the end of Dick Jauron. I mean, three consecutive 7-9 seasons with no upside in sight, there is no way he returns. Right?

Well, apparently Bills upper management felt otherwise and decided to stick with Jauron for the 2009 season. The season is now over half way through, and our beloved Bills sit near the bottom of the league at 3-6. It doesn’t even look as though they will attain the 7-9 record that the fans have grown to know and expect. So, as I stated before, Bills fans have been awaiting this moment for about a year and a half.

Now, I’m not sure how many people out there are actually reading this (no offense Jim), but I’m sure some of you may be thinking that I’m cold hearted for wishing/hoping that this person lose his job. To that I say, he shouldn’t have been a suck-ass coach!

Hallelujah! Holy Shit!

P.S. I hear Charlie Weis may be looking for a job soon! Here's hoping! I can't wait for the next ass-clown of a coach to step in! for 5 games. Hidden within that record is ONE winning season, in which he let the Bears play to a 13-3 record in 2001. To this I quote a very wise man; "Even a blind dog can find his nuts once in a while." Jauron's resume simply reeked of success. At least the Bills front office thought so.

Notre Dame's View From Three Point Land

In recent years Notre Dame has had their share of sharp-shooters from behind the arc. In fact, Coach Brey's modus operandi, intentional or not, has been to have two or more marksmen on the court at any given time. Their reliance on the three-point game was all too evident last season though. After a lights-out season two years ago, Big East teams at least were hip to the McAlarney game even if he dropped 124 three pointers from all over the court and a few from South America!

Even when McAlarney, who ended his career with 298 three pointers at a 43 percent click, was neutralized, teams had to be cognizant of Ryan Ayers, who contributed 170 of his own over his career, 94 of which came last season. He was deadly as well at 42 percent.

Before the McAlarney/Ayers tandem, the Big East had to worry about the likes of Chris Quinn and Colin Falls. Falls was generally considered more dangerous as he was the first player ever to drop 100 threes in a season in South Bend when he made 102 in 2005/06. He left with a 40 percent success rate making 232 three pointers. Quinn was no slouch as he complimented Falls with Ayers-like support with 169 threes at 42 percent himself.

Those days were thought to be long gone. Are they though? Not so fast says Ben Hansbrough! It's certainly too early to predict anything this season, but over his two previous playing seasons he's made 42 percent of his three attempts dropping 173 of them down. If two games can be any indication, he's off to a good start throwing in eight out of ten threes thus far.

So if Hansbrough is this season's Falls/McAlarney, who fits the bill for the Quinn/Ayers character? It's tough to pinpoint solid candidates, if any, but there are a few indicators early on. Peoples and Jackson drain an occasional three but I don't think they have the green light to put it up any time they want. Tim Abromaitis and Luke Harangody have shown they can hit from anywhere on the court. I expect both to contribute to the three point game.

Coach Brey is fully aware their game plan must change from the previous seasons where McAlarney would jack up threes from half court, and make them! With no one expecting much out of South Bend, other than 'Gody producing MVP numbers, the Irish may be able to fly under the radar a bit and surprise some folks once again come Big East time. Either way, I still expect to see plenty shots from downtown and hopefully just as many drops!